President Bush and the Partisan Divide
by: Chris Anderson
If there has been one thing George W. Bush has been able to count on since becoming president,
it is that Republicans are united behind him. Results to our recent national polls indicate this may
be changing, opening the door to a new range of political possibilities in America. President Bush’s
job approval rating has ranged from a healthy 63% in April 2001, to a stratospheric 88% in the
aftermath of the 9/11 attacks, to an average of approximately 50% over the last year, where it
appeared to have bottomed out. Throughout the ups and downs of his presidency, approximately
9-in-10 Republicans have consistently approved of his job performance. Until recently.
The early November Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll found George Bush’s job approval at a new low,
driven down largely by an erosion of support among Republicans. The early November poll found the
president’s job rating at 36%, with his rating from Republicans down 12 points since September. As of
early November 10% of Democrats, 26% of Independents and 72% of Republicans approved of the job
Bush was doing as president.
A range of outcomes could flow from an erosion of Republican support for Bush. The most obvious
being electoral losses for Republican politicians whose base may come to lack the unified sense of
purpose and energy that has served them so well in recent elections. It was in no small part fervent
party unity that helped Bush edge John Kerry last year—according to exit polls, 93% of Republicans
voted for Bush while 89% of Democrats voted for Kerry.
Another potential outcome could be a dismantling of the partisan divide that has polarized America
during Bush’s presidency. Since the 2000 presidential election, many of the most significant issues
facing America have been viewed through a partisan lens. One of the most obvious character-istics of
this partisan divide is that Republicans have tended to be more optimistic about issues that reflect
upon the president’s job performance. This dynamic is clearly
evident in opinions toward many of the biggest issues facing the
country, starting with the war in Iraq and the U.S. economy.
As of our early September poll, Republicans were much more
optimistic about the future of Iraq than Democrats—56% of
Republicans thought the situation there would turn out well for
the United States, compared to 15% of Democrats. In the same
poll we found that 68% of Republicans thought things were going
as well as could be expected for U.S. troops in Iraq, compared to
21% of Democrats who thought the same.
Our early September poll also found a similar dynamic in
evaluations of the U.S. economy. Democrats were twice as likely
to be pessimistic (63%) about the economy as they were to be
optimistic (30%), while Republicans were more likely to say they
were optimistic (61%) than pessimistic (31%).
Republicans and Democrats also disagree on issues that do not
directly reflect upon the president’s job performance. The hot
button social issues of abortion
rights and gay marriage are good
examples. The last time we polled
on abortion was in April, when we
found Democrats considering
themselves pro-choice by a 2-to-1
margin (53% to 22%), and
Republicans considering themselves
pro-life by about the same margin
(55% to 27%). In March of 2004 we
polled on gay marriage and found
fully 70% of Republicans supported
amending the U.S. Constitution to
define marriage as being between a
man and a woman, while just 38%
of Democrats supported this idea.
Of course, President Bush’s degree
of responsibility for the partisan
divide is highly debatable; Democrats
and Republicans disagreed long
before George W. Bush became
president, especially on enduring social issues like abortion and
gay rights. At the same time, President Bush has inarguably
become a divisive figure in contemporary American politics. If
fewer voters are taking cues from him, perhaps arbitrary partisan
divisions will be lesser guideposts and we will have an opportunity
to bring a greater range of perspectives to some of the major
issues facing our country.
It’s worth noting that both Democrats and Republicans are likely
to appreciate a dismantling of the partisan divide in America—our
late September poll found that over two-thirds of Democrats (77%)
and Republicans (80%) are fed up with partisan bickering in
Washington D.C. Other research, however, suggests that a partisan
divide reaches well beyond Washington D.C. and dismantling it
may not be a job that begins or ends with politicians.In fact, a
Fox News/ODC poll from February 2001 suggests this divide reaches
right into our bedrooms—79% of voters told us they were married
to a spouse of the same political party. And even here we found
greater party unity among Republicans (90%) than Democrats (76%).